You judge a person’s expertise not by his ability to pontificate, to use big words, or to wave an impressive resume in your face.
You judge a person’s expert is by his ability to make accurate predictions.
On many occasions I’ve had a program director play an aircheck for me “cold” — with my having no previous knowledge of the air talent. And I’ve consistently been able to pick out the jocks who have especially strong relationships with their listeners.
Once I was brought in to consult with an ad agency. The entire creative and sales staff was gathered in the conference room, and the agency head opened the session with a surprise challenge:
“I’d like to play you two different Direct Response commercials for the same client and see if you can tell me which performed better in the marketplace.”
How’s that for pressure? If I guessed wrong, my credibility surely would be blown for the rest of the visit.
Fortunately, one spot seemed much stronger than the other.
Even more fortunately, I knew why it should have generated a greater response.
I made my prediction.
Luckily (yes, it’s a combination of skill and luck), I was right.
And everyone else thought, “Wow, this guy really is an expert!”
Did you add three “sure-fire hits” in a row…That flopped? Maybe you’re not yet a Music Expert.
Did your massive, cume-building promotion — which was executed exactly to your specifications — fail to add a single listener? Maybe you’re not yet a Promotions Expert.
Have the last three morning shows you hired failed miserably? Maybe you’re not the best judge of morning talent. Or maybe you need to grow as a morning show coach.
The ultimate example in my memory of The Emperor/Expert’s New Clothes occurred in 1994, when a religious sect called the Branch Davidians was in a stand-off with the U.S. government.
The FBI enacted a plan of action, and 75 to 80 (depending upon which source you believe) sect members died.
When asked if the FBI’s plan was flawed, a member of the FBI team told a reporter, “It was a perfectly good plan. We had no way of knowing how irrationally the people inside would react.”
Um, excuse me. But a perfectly good plan…works.
The FBI guy blamed the Branch Davidians for not reacting the way the FBI expected them to.
Just as a dumb radio program director blames the audience for not reacting to a program, promotion or feature the way the PD expected them to.
Learn What Caused Your Failed Predictions.
Wrong predictions are the result of one of three causes:
- Not Enough Information
- Bad Information
- Erroneous Interpretation of Information
If your prediction was wrong due to not enough information, was that because:
- There simply wasn’t enough information available?
- You didn’t try hard enough to obtain it?
If your prediction was wrong due to bad information, was that because:
- You relied on the wrong information supplier?
- You researched the wrong questions?
- You researched the wrong marketplace (audience)?
- You rigged the research to produce the results you wanted to see?
If your prediction was wrong due to erroneous interpretation of the information, was that because:
- You were unqualified to interpret it?
- You relied on someone else who was unqualified to interpret it?
- You made the information fit what you wanted it to suggest?
Edison Media Research’s Larry Rosin fondly recalls a trade advertisement for one research company. It featured a testimonial from a programmer who said:
“I wanted to get Simon & Garfunkel off my radio station, but I didn’t have the research to back me up. They kept testing well with my audience, but finally Company X did the research that proved my listeners didn’t really like Simon & Garfunkel, which allowed me to take them off my station.”
And Larry remembers thinking:
“Pay me; I’ll get them off! I’ll go right into the studio and take them out, if it’s that important to you. You don’t need a research methodology to tell you to take them off.”
You’d be surprised how many radio programmers and managers say to their research companies, “I need a study that proves….”
That’s not research. It’s propaganda.
Propaganda has its uses. But if as a programmer you confuse it with research, you’re in trouble.
